Thursday, March 11, 2010

Who will prevail - Guyana's PPP Presi-race

The battle continues for the Presidency candidate for the ruling party.

Some are secretly endorsing others while some are declaring ‘goat aint bite me’
But who will prevail?

We have already analyzed and opined the possibility of constitutional changes that can see the young dictator continuing his rule. For instance, the pursuit of overseas voting by filing a constitutional motion can see GECOM postponing the holding of any elections to have those in the Diaspora registered.

This postponement of the elections could see the government holding office for the next two years (and dictator holding unto presidency)

Then there is another theory being touted:
The Dictator steps out the race, returns to "help" as Prime Minister and then sworn in as President.

Guyana's Constitution says that the any president is barred from running for a third term for that Office. But the current dictator will not run for the Presidency or better yet be elected as President. He could be the Prime Minister or serve as another Minister in the government and be sworn in as President if the President at that time is unable to perform the duties of President.

With that aside, from the looks of things the Opposition Parties may not have a chance at even grasping at the seats of government.

The PNC is virtually dead, probably presently on saline solution but is dying a slow death. The only other real party at this time is the Alliance for Change, but what chances they really have in picking up the needed votes for change? They are gonna pick up a few votes from the young and professional, but there is no real indication that Guyanese are really ready to vote on issues and not race.

So who will actually be around in 2011?

Well, the race is apparently still on between Donald Ramotar, Ralph Ramkarran, Clement Rohee and possibly Moses Nagamottoo for Presidential candidate.

These could be all a puppet show.

Word out is that a few have been booted and a few promised promotions. For instance:
--> Carolyn Rodrigues is tipped to be Prime Minister while
--> Sam is said to be rehired as a consultant.
-->Robeson Benn who was once tipped to be Prime Minister but who has ‘hammered’ too many wrong nails is tipped to be Minister of Mining. (a post set up to ensure that mining is minimized to capitalized on the LCDS finds)
--> Donald Ramoutar will be Minister of Works
--> A Ministry of Communications is to be shared by someone close to the President and yet to be named.
--> There is word that Odinga Lumumba will be made a Junior Minister (possibly the Sports Ministry)
--> Irfaan Ali is expected to be the Culture. Youth and Sports Minister
--> The current Culture Minister will probably be a serving doctor at the Georgetown Public Hospital or head a foreign funded health programme.
--> Pauline Sukhai will remain Amerindian Affairs Minister.
--> Kellawan Lall is said to have already gotten the boot.
--> Manniram Prashad will not return (he is making no money holding the post of Tourism Minister)
--> Priya Manickchand will remain and her sisiter Jaya Manickchand is tipped for a Junior ministerial role.
--> So is Attorney General in waiting Anil Nandalall (and no, he will not be AG) Charles Ramson will remain there until someone else gets Senior Counsel Status and accepts the job.
--> Region 6 Chairman Zulfikar Mustapha is tipped for a ministerial post.
--> Robert Persaud will retain his post.

But there are a few who MAY retain their post for the fear of interdiction by the United States. Leslie Ramsammy is one of those.

These are The Happy Faces of the PPP government to come in 2011 !

Wednesday, March 10, 2010

Guyana's faux pas - data vs power

Wikipedia says:
"The electricity sector in Guyana is dominated by Guyana Power and Light (GPL), the state-owned vertically integrated utility. Although the country has a large potential for hydroelectric and bagasse-fueled power generation, most of its 226 MW of installed capacity correspond to inefficient thermoelectric diesel-engine driven generators."

Wikipedia also notes that Guyana's blackout (power outage) is the highest incidence in Latin America and the Caribbean.

The most incisive statement is that,"Electricity prices in Guyana are the third highest in the Caribbean." The rates range between US$0.25cents for residences and US$0.35cents for businesses (kWh). See GPL site.

The promise of cheaper power has been echoed for more than 30 years by several governments and now seems only a comfort to fools. It has been years since we have been told of Hydro Electricity and how such a venture would save us of billions of dollars we already spend each year on our fuel bill. For instance, our petroleum import bill for 2007 was almost 40% of our GDP. Not much has changed since then has it?

However, the Government of Guyana is now throwing more than US$37million behind bringing another fibre optic cable, a cable which benefits are still to be calculated.

In 2008 the President of Synergy Holdings Inc. (Makeshwar Motilall) spoke of bringing the Amaila Falls Hydro Project to a working state as he calculated an investment in this project at $400 million. Since 2002 we hve heard that the Hydro project has been slated to begin year after year. In 2006 Mr. Motilall was quoted as saying that the financial closing and ground breaking for this project were targeting for 2007 with December 15 2010 as the latest commence of work date. This 100 mega watt station is said to aid in the development of large scale industries and domestic consumption.

But has the government changed its course of direction in pursuing hydro power? Since the Memorandum of Understanding has been signed between the government and Synergy Holdings Inc, the Company has repeatedly been quoted in the local press as saying it is awaiting financial closure.

As noted above, The government has now quickly secured more than US$37 million to bring a competing fibre optic cable to promote e-governance and break the Guyana Telephone and Telegraphy Company monopoly. While the President has said that his cable will be used for egovernenace, his Ministers and the PPP MPs have insisted (even in Parliament) that their cable will be competitive.

At the same time, the telephone company (GT&T) has said that it was/is investing US$60 million on a new undersea cable.

So, while the Government is finding US$37 million for a data cable, it is hard pressed to find a Lesser amount for hydro electricity?

Why are they investing in something that others are investing in when they cannot supply basic power? What will the GoG's customers pay for bandwidth prices and will the GoG be regulated?

Also, what will power up the customers' data customers?

There is more to this data cable deal than can be explained by economics, politics or by the lame excuse that they want to bring data prices down by their (GoG) own cable.